Abstract:
Although desert biotas are vulnerable to climate warming, many desert species still lack sufficient data for robust conservation and extinction assessment. Here, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the distribution of two Arabian Peninsula lizards, and project shifts in suitable habitat based on climate change. Using multiple global circulation models (GCMs), climate scenarios, and time frames, we projectedhabitat shifts up to the 2080s and assessed how current and future suitable habitat overlaps with protected areas in Saudi Arabia. We also recorded lizard body and microclimate temperatures to compare between field-collected and WorldClim data. Suitable habitat decreased under future climate change for both species; by 36.2–63.0% for the spiny-tailed lizard, Uromastyx aegyptia, and 33.0–49.6% for the toad-headed agama, Phrynocephalus arabicus. Under future scenarios, suitable habitat in protected areas for P. arabicus decreases from 18.6% to 9.3–10.9% by the year 2080, with greatest resilience in the east. By contrast, suitable habitat within protected areas increases from 21.1% to 31.7–50.2% for U. aegyptia by the year 2080, driven by gains in northern Saudi Arabia. These findings highlight areas to prioritize for designating new protected areas.We found that micro air temperatures were remarkably similar to WorldClim data, and lizard body temperatures were consistently lower than substrate, supporting active thermoregulation and emphasizing the importance of microenvironments. We conclude that SDMs are valuable tools for assessing protected area resilience to climate change for desert biota, and there is potential for improving models by including microclimate for desert species.

Bio:
Yara Alshwairikh is an Ibn Rushd Postdoctoral Fellow at the American Museum of Natural History. She earned her PhD from the Yale School of Environment in 2025, where she studied the phylogeography and freeze tolerance of wood frogs. She use genomic tools and species distribution models to investigate how vertebrate species may adapt throughout time and space to thermal challenges. Broadly, she is interested in wildlife conservation in the Arabian Peninsula and using genomic tools to guide conservation decisions.